The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that the conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran has had ‘profound implications’ for food security, particularly in the world’s most fragile countries. In a report published in early June, the WFP said that rising oil prices have led to an increase in the cost of food globally. It further highlighted that ‘substantial food price rises’ were already being felt in vulnerable, developing economies such as Somalia, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.

The conflict began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February, before escalating quickly to affect numerous countries in the Middle East. In mid-June, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding towards ending the conflict, though the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route, remains practically closed. However, the WFP’s report says that the impacts of the conflict ‘are expected to intensify in the coming months, even if the crisis in the Middle East de-escalates. In parts of the world, farmers are going through planting seasons amid severe fertilizer shortages and high fuel prices. This is expected to have a devastating impact on crop yields and, consequently, on food prices months down the line.’

In March, the WFP found that a further 45 million people risked being pushed into acute food insecurity if the conflict continued and oil prices remained at $100 per barrel.

At the start of May, the UN warned that heightened insecurity and instability around key Gulf routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, was driving up the price of basic goods and delaying the delivery of critical supplies to millions of refugees and displaced people. The Iran conflict also came less than 12 months after famines were confirmed in parts of Gaza and Sudan.

López-Portillo – who’s a partner at López Portillo Consultores in Mexico City – says it’s already clear that the supply disruption stemming from this conflict could be even more far-reaching for manufacturing, trade, maritime transport and industries such as oil and gas.

Fears of an impending jet fuel shortage have forced some airlines to cancel flights and compelled some governments, such as Sri Lanka’s, to introduce a four-day working week in a bid to conserve fuel. Other countries, like China, have imposed further export restrictions on phosphate fertilisers to protect their domestic markets.

Should talks between the US and Iran fail and the conflict become further prolonged, López-Portillo says some governments may resort to implementing emergency measures, including maintaining strategic food reserves, imposing fertiliser subsidies, export control or protectionist measures, price caps or even humanitarian interventions.

By March, the war had already prompted Iran to impose restrictions on food exports to maintain domestic supplies. Longstanding sanctions on the country have dampened the impact of these measures on global food supplies. However, countries such as Afghanistan – which relies on Iran for an estimated 60 per cent of exports and 50 per cent of imports – have been hit particularly hard. The WFP says this overreliance – combined with the prolonged closure of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border – risks pushing 2.3 million Afghans into food poverty, on top of the 13.8 million already identified as food insecure before the Middle East crisis.

López-Portillo warns that the conflict has exposed the devastating effects that sudden shifts in export policies can have on already vulnerable, import-dependent countries and regions. ‘Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and parts of the Middle East rely heavily on imported food and fertilisers while simultaneously possessing limited fiscal capacity to subsidise rising costs,’ he says.

Migone fears the worst is still to come. ‘The risk is particularly acute for smallholder farmers and import-dependent countries,’ he says. ‘If farmers cannot afford inputs at the right time, the effects are felt months later in reduced harvests, tighter food supplies and deeper food insecurity. This is also felt by the consumer in higher market prices and lower food availability post-harvest.’

Analysis by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization has meanwhile highlighted areas where drought linked to the weather pattern El Niño is set to affect crops and pasturelands, ‘raising risks for agricultural-dependent livelihoods and food security in regions already in crisis.’

In May, seven multilateral development banks released a joint statement pledging to work together to help address ‘disruptions to energy and fertilizer markets and trade routes, with spillover effects on inflation, food security, jobs, fiscal and external balances, and financing conditions.’

Migone believes it’s also vital that governments and multilateral organisations put in place funding for humanitarian programmes and social safety nets to ensure resources reach families as quickly as possible. ‘This way we can prevent today’s market shocks from becoming tomorrow’s hunger and poverty crises,’ he says.

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